2025 NJ Gubernatorial Race: Ciattarelli Eyes Trump's Nonwhite Support
The 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race is shaping up to be a tight contest, with Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli potentially benefiting from Donald Trump's gains among nonwhite voters in the state. Trump made significant inroads in traditionally Democratic nonwhite areas during the 2024 presidential election, flipping several majority-Hispanic municipalities and reducing his margin of defeat in these communities.
In 2024, Trump's support among Hispanic voters in New Jersey grew dramatically, narrowing his defeat in majority-Hispanic communities from 46 points in 2020 to just 20 points. This trend could bode well for Ciattarelli, who might replicate Trump's success among these voters. However, Ciattarelli may face challenges in replicating his 2021 success in affluent, white-majority suburbs due to Trump's continued presence in the political landscape.
Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill, on the other hand, faces an uphill battle in reasserting traditional Democratic advantages in nonwhite areas and increasing turnout in these communities. Equalizing turnout rates in nonwhite communities could have significantly increased Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy's margin of victory in 2021. Hudson County, a key battleground with a significant Hispanic population, is a prime example of this challenge, with some local Democratic machines aligning with Ciattarelli.
If Ciattarelli had won Trump's share of the vote in every majority-nonwhite municipality in 2021, it would have reduced Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy's margin of victory to a mere 0.3 points. As the 2025 race heats up, both candidates will need to strategize effectively to win over nonwhite voters and secure their support at the polls.
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