Airline services reached the 2021 level, but may plummet due to a shortage of Russian aircraft.
Fresh Take:
Russian skies have welcomed a whopping 111.7 million passengers in 2024, marking a 5.9% jump from 2023 figures. This number equalizes the 2021 passenger count, with 111 million people taking flight, as reported by "Aviation Russia" in their presentation based on data from the Association of Air Transport Operators (AATO).
The recovery, however, doesn't follow a smooth path. International travels surged by 20.1%, while domestic routes showed a humble 2% growth. Interestingly, the lean towards domestic flights remains—84.7 million passengers against 27 million on international routes.
Surprisingly, the total of domestic flights reached the second-highest record in the history of Russian civil aviation in 2024, with the peak being in 2021—87.5 million passengers.
International travels have hit their highest mark in five years, yet they are still a mere two times less than 2019's figures (55.1 million).
Five-month results for 2025 show a stagnation in overall passenger traffic (-0.2%), with domestic flights showing a negative trend, whereas international routes experienced a 3.3% growth. Flights to far-off lands zoomed up by 10%.
The key challenge facing the industry, as per the presentation, is the high load on aircraft. The occupancy rate of passenger seats grew by 1.7 percentage points—from 87.6% to 89.3%. That's almost a 2% increase compared to the previous period.
On interregional routes, this occupancy reached an impressive 90.4%, with peak occupancy happening during the summer—92.5% in July and 93.2% in August. In 2025, the occupancy remained high (88.3%), which can be considered an unexpected phenomenon. Interestingly, high occupancy rates even during the off-season indicate that the carrying capacity of Russian airlines is nearing its limit, despite a consistent demand for air travel.
Due to the ongoing withdrawal of foreign aircraft and the arrival of new domestic models only in the coming years, the short-term forecast for the next five years carries a cautiously optimistic tone. For instance, it's expected that the number of passengers in 2026 could drop to 91-92 million, primarily due to the faster replacement of old foreign aircraft with new Russian models.
However, starting from 2027, with the gradual increase in deliveries of Russian aircraft like the MS-21 and SSJ-100, there are hopes of a passenger traffic recovery. For example, by 2028, it's estimated that the passenger count could surpass 107 million, and by 2030, it might even come close to pre-pandemic levels of 120-127 million passengers.
Yet, achieving a complete return to pre-crisis volumes will require steady increases in the delivery of new Russian aircraft and the resolution of structural obstacles.
Financial results in the aviation sector remain positive, despite the rise in operational costs. Nevertheless, restrictions on access to aircraft manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus, along with growing tariffs from natural monopolies, put additional strain on the cost of airport services and meteorological support.
As a result, it's emphasized that strengthening government control over the cost of these services is necessary to maintain the financial stability of airlines.
In summary, despite reaching high financial results and a revival in passenger traffic, Russian civilian aviation will still face growth limitations due to a shortage of carrying capacity. Resolving this issue depends directly on the delivery of new Russian aircraft, with the start expected in 2026.
- The financial sector will need to navigate additional costs due to restrictions on access to aircraft manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus, along with growing tariffs from natural monopolies, in order to maintain the financial stability of the aviation industry.
- With the gradual increase in deliveries of Russian aircraft like the MS-21 and SSJ-100, starting from 2027, there are hopes of a recovery in passenger traffic for the aviation industry, potentially even surpassing 107 million passengers by 2028 and nearly reaching pre-pandemic levels of 120-127 million passengers by 2030.
