Armenian-Turkish Border Reopening Hinges on Trump’s Regional Influence
The Armenian-Turkish border remains officially closed, with no confirmed date for opening to third-country citizens. However, recent developments hint at preparations for reopening, with Garo Paylan, a former Turkish MP, expressing optimism about Turkey's president visiting Yerevan next year. Paylan also discusses the 'Trump Route' initiative and its potential impact on regional communications.
Paylan, now a Carnegie Endowment representative, believes Turkey is pushing for the 'Trump Route' as a 'Plan B' to corridors through Georgia. He warns that a dialogue between Trump and Putin about the Ukraine war could lead to US withdrawal from the region. Paylan emphasizes the need for Armenia to normalize relations with both Turkey and Azerbaijan simultaneously.
He estimates that opening the Armenian-Turkish border could attract 10-15 million tourists within five years and stimulate new infrastructure projects. Paylan expects the border to open to third-country citizens in January 2026, with further openings to Armenian and Turkish citizens to follow. He believes open borders and trade can help heal old wounds and boost Armenia's economy. However, Paylan warns that progress on the 'Trump Route' project is crucial to maintain Trump's interest.
While no specific date has been set for opening the Armenian-Turkish border to third-country citizens, recent developments suggest preparations are underway. Garo Paylan's insights highlight the potential benefits and challenges of this reopening, with tourism, infrastructure, and regional relations all at stake. The 'Trump Route' initiative also plays a significant role in these developments.
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