Assessment:
In the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the use of cruise missiles has been a significant factor. Over the past year, there has been a noticeable decrease in Russia's long-range cruise missile capability.
On August 11, 2025, an attack was carried out on the Arzamas Instrument-Building Plant, but the name of the person or group responsible remains unknown. This attack was one of several that Ukraine has launched against Russian cruise missile plants, with the first strike hitting the Raduga Design Bureau in the Moscow region on May 28-29, 2025.
Russian bombers, including Tu-95MS, Tu-160, and Tu-22M, have been frequent targets in these surprise drone attacks deep inside Russia. In the most recent substantial massed air weapons attack by Russia against Ukraine, overnight Aug. 18-19, Russian bombers launched only five Kh-101 cruise missiles, a significant decrease from the 80-90 cruise missiles launched in August 2024 and November 2024.
The Kh-59 and Kh-101 cruise missiles, key components of Russia's long-range strike capability, contain advanced components sold by US firms and a few from Europe. The Kh-101, in particular, contains at least 138 specific military-grade electronic components produced largely in the US.
The decrease in the number of cruise missiles launched by Russian bombers is not just a recent trend. The average number of cruise missiles launched by Russia's heavy bomber fleet in nighttime massed strikes fell from 33 in April-May to 19 in June-July. This decrease is largely attributed to Operation Spiderweb, conducted by Ukraine's SBU, which destroyed or damaged 41 Russian Aerospace Force aircraft on the ground, according to reports.
Ukrainian air defense units claimed shootdowns of two ballistic missiles and four cruise missiles in the most recent attack. Published Ukrainian military intelligence reports suggest that Russia's armaments industry assembles 30 to 50 air-launched cruise missiles for the Russian Aerospace Force monthly. However, losses to Russia's bomber fleet inflicted by Operation Spiderweb are largely responsible for a 42 percent drop in air-launched cruise missile counts fired by the Kremlin at Ukraine.
The most recent Russian strike, overnight August 19-20, was less ambitious and less deadly, with no bomber-launched cruise missiles. This could be a sign of a continued decline in Russia's long-range cruise missile capability, a trend that has been evident since the start of Operation Spiderweb.
In contrast, the Ukrainian military has been increasingly relying on long-range drone strikes to target Russian missile plants. This strategic shift could potentially further weaken Russia's long-range cruise missile capability, altering the balance of power in the conflict.
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