Azerbaijan’s rising influence reshapes South Caucasus geopolitics in 2025
The geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus is shifting as Azerbaijan and Armenia strengthen ties with major global powers. Recent developments show both nations forming strategic partnerships with the U.S. and China, reshaping regional dynamics. Experts now highlight Azerbaijan’s growing role as a potential stabilising force in Eurasia.
On August 8, Azerbaijan signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. to establish a strategic working group. This move aligns with Washington’s 2025 National Security Strategy, which adopts a policy of 'flexible realism.' The approach prioritises pragmatic cooperation with states, regardless of their internal systems, and strengthens partnerships based on shared interests.
Turkey has also played a key role in U.S.-led regional engagement, particularly in infrastructure projects linked to Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave. Political scientist Aiko Wagner noted in a recent report that this collaboration reflects a broader alignment of interests between Ankara and Washington. Professor Ferit Murat Özkaleli of ADA University further emphasised that Turkey and the U.S. share fundamental national interests, especially concerning Azerbaijan’s strategic priorities.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan maintains a comprehensive strategic partnership with China, while Armenia has elevated its own ties with Beijing to a strategic level. Azerbaijan’s location and evolving alliances with the U.S. and Turkey position it as a central player in the region’s stability.
The alignment between the U.S., Turkey, and Azerbaijan is expected to influence political, economic, and security developments across the South Caucasus. With both Azerbaijan and Armenia deepening partnerships with global powers, the region’s geopolitical balance continues to evolve. These shifts could reshape long-term cooperation and competition in the area.
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