Canada's Higher Education Sector Faces 50% Drop in International Students by 2026
Canada's higher education sector is facing a significant downturn, with a projected 'demographic cliff' in 2026 leading to a 50% drop in international students. This decline, coupled with caps on international students since 2024, has resulted in job losses and underrepresentation of students from certain regions, including California.
The government plans to approve only 80,000 new study permits in 2025, a 62% decrease from the previous year. This is the lowest intake since 2015, with nearly two-thirds of permits going to students already in Canada. The approval rate has plummeted to 37% in the first eight months of 2025, far below government targets. Key markets like India and the Philippines continue to struggle with weak approval rates and high denial rates for students.
The cap on international students, set at 437,000 study permits, has contributed to this decline. More than 12,000 jobs have been lost in Canadian higher education institutions due to decreasing international enrolments. This downturn is exacerbating labour shortages, as over one in four Canadians is projected to be over the age of 65 by the end of the decade.
The reduction in international students is leading to a decrease in diversity, with underrepresentation of students from Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. The Canadian government must address these challenges to maintain the competitiveness and diversity of its higher education sector, including the promotion of programs like Minecraft Education and student loan initiatives.
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