China’s energy security at risk as Iran’s unrest deepens divisions among experts
China is closely watching the unrest in Iran, where protests and political tensions have raised concerns about stability. The situation has sparked debate among Chinese analysts, with some warning of serious risks to Beijing’s energy security if the Iranian regime collapses.
Iran plays a vital role in China’s energy supply, ranking as the third-largest oil exporter to the country after Russia and Saudi Arabia. A potential collapse of the Iranian regime could severely disrupt China’s ability to meet its energy needs, according to China expert Isaac Stone Fish.
Moderate Chinese academics argue that a full regime change remains unlikely. Many Iranians want economic improvements, they say, but not a complete overthrow of the system. Meanwhile, influential political commentators in China have dismissed anti-government protesters as terrorists or rioters. State media coverage of the crisis has stayed low-key, largely aligning with the Iranian government’s narrative. Online, however, some Chinese users challenge official views, drawing parallels between Iran’s situation and past upheavals in other nations. Geopolitical concerns also shape the discussion. Certain commentators claim the U.S. is using the crisis to control global oil reserves and limit China’s growth. Earlier, Beijing reacted strongly to U.S. actions in Venezuela, calling the abduction of Nicolás Maduro a 'profound shock' to China’s interests. No evidence exists of a Chinese expert predicting systematic upheaval in Iran through crisis scenario analysis. Recent search results on the topic instead focused on unrelated subjects, such as 3D printing technology in Colombia.
The Iranian crisis has exposed divisions in China’s expert community. While some downplay the risk of regime change, others warn of broader consequences for China’s energy security. The debate reflects wider concerns about U.S. influence and China’s long-term access to critical oil supplies.
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