Democrats claw back Latino support as Trump’s 2024 gains fade ahead of 2026
Democrats have traditionally enjoyed strong support among Latino voters, but recent elections saw a shift. In 2024, Trump made considerable inroads, losing Latinos by just 5 points nationally. However, new polls suggest Democrats are regaining ground ahead of the 2026 midterms.
In the 2020 elections, Democrats won Latinos by a wide margin, with at least a 2-to-1 advantage. However, in 2024, Trump managed to reduce this gap significantly, losing the Latino vote by only 5 points. This shift was notable, given that many Latinos entered Trump's second term feeling optimistic.
CNN's latest polling indicates that Democrats are currently retaining more Latino voters who supported Kamala Harris in 2020 than Republicans are retaining Latino Trump voters. Moreover, Latino Trump voters appear to be defecting at higher rates than the overall electorate. This trend is likely influenced by the focus on economic and immigration issues among Latinos, with Trump's approval rating among them dropping to a low of 20%.
Analyses by Catalist and the Pew Research Center also suggest a close race among Latinos in 2024. However, since March, the Republican Party's favorability rating among Latinos has dropped from 26% to 16%.
As the 2026 midterms approach, Democrats are showing signs of regaining ground among Latino voters. Potential candidates like Zohran Mamdani, Mikie Sherrill, and Abigail Spanberger could appeal to different segments of the Latino electorate, with Mamdani's progressive agenda resonating in urban areas and Sherrill and Spanberger's moderate stances appealing to more centrist voters. The Republican Party, meanwhile, faces a challenge in reversing its declining favorability among Latinos.
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