Ex-Shin Bet Chief Dismisses Trump’s Gaza Plan Without Two-State Commitment
Former Shin Bet chief Ami Ayalon is pessimistic about the prospects of Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan, arguing that it lacks a clear commitment to a two-state solution, which he sees as the only path to a negotiated settlement. Ayalon, a veteran analyst of Israel's security situation, believes that the war's carnage and brutality will fuel Hamas recruitment and be exploited by global jihadi organizations.
Ayalon argues that the two-state solution is the 'better idea' to counter Hamas ideology, as military power alone cannot defeat it. He sees a glimmer of hope in the Gaza plan as a first step, but acknowledges it's a long journey. Many Israeli gatekeepers, including Ayalon, support a two-state solution but face public skepticism, with only 27% of Israelis backing it in a 2022 Gallup poll. Palestinian support for a two-state solution is also low, with only 33% supporting it in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Without a political horizon for a Palestinian state, Ayalon expects Palestinians to withhold cooperation, making peace elusive. Israel has insisted that neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority should have any role in running postwar Gaza, while Palestinian leaders want the Palestinian Authority to manage civilian affairs. Ayalon thinks the chances of Hamas disarming are negligible without Palestinians directly running Gaza in the meantime.
Ayalon believes that the only way to counter Hamas and achieve peace is through a two-state solution. He is pessimistic about the Trump plan's prospects but sees the Gaza plan as a potential first step. However, he acknowledges the challenges and the need for a clear commitment to a two-state solution. The low support for a two-state solution among Israelis and Palestinians, along with the insistence of neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority running postwar Gaza, makes the path to peace complex and uncertain.
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