Farage's Reform UK aide bets £41,000 against U.S.-Iran peace deal by 2026
A senior aide to Nigel Farage's Reform UK party has placed a £41,000 bet against a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by July 2026. The wager, made on prediction market Polymarket, contrasts sharply with the party's public calls for peace in the region. Meanwhile, financial ties between Farage's political circle and defence industry investors have come under renewed scrutiny.
George Cottrell, described by Farage as 'like a son to me', placed the bet while Reform UK officially advocates for de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. The party's stance has shifted in recent months, moving from Farage's February call for UK support of U.S. military operations to a March statement opposing direct involvement. This change followed reports of a snub by Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, with senior Reform UK figure Robert Jenrick later emphasising that offensive action was 'not in Britain's interest'.
Cottrell's financial history includes a €20 million loss in a single poker game and a 2017 conviction for wire fraud. His bet currently shows an unrealised loss of $6,240.
Separately, Christopher Harborne, a major donor to Reform UK with contributions exceeding $29.6 million, holds significant stakes in military contractor QinetQ. The firm's U.S. division recently secured part of a $4 billion defence contract, including a $41 million deal for counter-drone technology. Despite this, QinetQ is restructuring its U.S. operations due to profitability challenges linked to geopolitical uncertainty.
Farage has also invested $289,000 in a bitcoin firm founded by former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, further highlighting his financial connections to both defence and cryptocurrency sectors.
The bet by Cottrell stands in direct contrast to Reform UK's public position on the U.S.-Iran conflict. Harborne's donations and investments in defence firms, alongside Farage's recent bitcoin venture, add complexity to the party's financial and political ties. The party has not addressed the discrepancy between its official stance and Cottrell's wager.
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