Germany’s 2026 Elections Could Reshape Politics Amid Economic and Far-Right Pressures
Germany is heading into a critical year of elections in 2026, with major contests set to reshape state and national politics. The centre-right Union bloc and the Social Democrats (SPD) will face tough battles as economic struggles and far-right gains add pressure on established parties.
The first key change comes on March 8, 2026, when Winfried Kretschmann, Germany’s first Green state premier, steps down after 16 years leading Baden-Württemberg. Cem Özdemir, the former federal agriculture minister, will take over as his successor. The Greens now face a strong challenge from the CDU, led by Manuel Hagel, who aims to make the party the strongest force in the state. Despite past refusals to cooperate with the far-right AfD, the CDU may still seek a coalition with the Greens if needed.
Economic troubles loom large in the region. The automotive industry is shrinking, suppliers are collapsing, and mechanical engineering is in crisis. Meanwhile, the AfD is expected to surge, adding further uncertainty to the political landscape. On March 22, 2026, Rhineland-Palatinate holds its state election, where job cuts at BASF’s Ludwigshafen plant will weigh on voters. The chemical giant’s struggles mirror broader industrial decline, influencing public sentiment. In Bavaria, municipal elections on the same day as Kretschmann’s departure could weaken the CSU, with Markus Söder facing visible discontent. Polls suggest the party may fall short of its 2020 result of 34.5%. Nationally, the CDU’s performance in these elections will have major consequences. A poor showing could undermine Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose leadership depends on strong state-level support. Before the votes, the Munich International Security Conference (February 13–15, 2026) will focus on the war in Ukraine and relations with Russia, setting the tone for campaign debates. Later in the year, Berlin votes for a new Governing Mayor on September 20, 2026. While current mayor Kai Wegner (CDU) is in office, the party has yet to confirm a candidate, leaving the race open.
The 2026 elections will test Germany’s traditional parties as economic decline and far-right gains reshape the political map. Results in Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Bavaria will determine whether the CDU and SPD can hold their ground—or if Chancellor Merz’s position weakens further. The outcomes will also influence Berlin’s direction as the country navigates industrial challenges and security concerns.
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