Germany's labor force to transform by 2045: Cities rise, regions fall

Bonn. Germany's labor force is expected to remain nearly stable through 2045, declining only slightly by around 0.5 percent to roughly 43.3 million people, according to the latest workforce projection by the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs, and Spatial Development (BBSR).

Germany's 2045 workforce shift reveals urban growth and rural decline

At the same time, regional disparities will intensify: In 58 of Germany's 96 spatial planning regions, the number of working-age people is set to decrease, with particularly sharp declines in structurally weaker areas—especially in eastern Germany, such as Altmark, Anhalt-Bitterfeld-Wittenberg, and North Thuringia, where drops of at least 20 percent are anticipated. In contrast, economically robust metropolitan areas like Hamburg and Munich are projected to see increases of over nine percent, while Berlin is expected to experience growth of around 15 percent.

In high-growth regions, the rise in the working-age population is driven primarily by inward migration and higher labor force participation among those of working age. In structurally weaker areas, however, the number of potential workers is falling significantly, as too few young people are entering the workforce to replace older workers leaving due to retirement. Immigration and rising employment rates are insufficient to offset these losses in those regions.

Policy options focus mainly on immigration and labor market participation. Continued and advanced training will become increasingly important to preserve up-to-date skills as the overall labor supply shrinks and fewer young people enter the job market. The projection is based on the BBSR's latest population forecast, as well as microcensus data from the Federal Statistical Office and the statistical offices of the German states.