Greens close in on CDU as Baden-Württemberg election nears dramatic shift
Two weeks before Baden-Württemberg's state election, the Green Party has made significant gains in voter support. Recent polls show the party narrowing the gap with the long-dominant CDU, reshaping the political landscape ahead of the vote.
The Greens now stand at 22 percent in statewide polling, cutting the CDU's lead to just six points. The ruling CDU remains at 28 percent, but its once-comfortable margin has shrunk. Earlier this year, the Greens trailed by a wider gap, holding only 23 percent in late January.
By early March 2026, their support surged to 27-28 percent, briefly matching the CDU. Analysts attribute the rise to strong campaign momentum under top candidate Cem Özdemir. Growing voter frustration with the CDU's prolonged dominance has also played a role.
Other parties show mixed results in the same polls. The SPD sits at 10 percent, while the far-right AfD holds 20 percent. The FDP, at 6 percent, looks set to re-enter the state parliament after previous struggles. The Left Party registers 7 percent, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) stands at 3 percent, and smaller parties combine for 4 percent.
The shift in polling suggests a tighter race than in previous elections. If the trend continues, the Greens could challenge the CDU's long-standing control of the state. The final results will determine whether the party's late surge translates into a stronger parliamentary presence.
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