Hesse’s 2040 forecast reveals stark divides in population growth and decline
Hesse's population is projected to grow slightly by 2040, but the changes will not be evenly distributed. While some areas will expand, others—including Wiesbaden—face a sharp decline. New forecasts from the Bertelsmann Foundation's Kommune 2040 report highlight a widening gap between thriving districts and those experiencing steep demographic decline.
The state's overall population is expected to rise by 1.7% to 6.4 million, but regional differences will create fresh challenges for local councils.
According to the forecast, Hesse's future population shifts will be uneven. Fifteen districts are expected to grow, with Groß-Gerau, Wetterau, and Darmstadt-Dieburg leading the way. The largest increase in any city will occur in Wiesbaden, where numbers will rise by up to 8.6%.
However, not all areas will follow this trend. Four districts, including Wiesbaden, will see populations shrink by as much as 7.9%. The state's median age will also climb, with Gießen and Odenwaldkreis experiencing the steepest rises. By 2040, nearly 27% of Hesse's residents will be of retirement age, up from 21% today.
The working-age population is projected to drop by 10%, falling to around 3.1 million. This shift will put pressure on local services and economies, as fewer people of employment age remain in shrinking regions.
The forecast reveals a divided future for Hesse's municipalities. Growing districts will need to manage increased demand for housing and infrastructure. Meanwhile, areas with falling populations must adapt to an older, smaller workforce. Local authorities will face distinct challenges depending on whether their region is expanding or contracting by 2040.
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