New study redefines China’s rise as defensive, not confrontational
A new study challenges the idea that China’s growing power will inevitably lead to conflict resolution with the United States. Published in the M.I.T. Journal of International Security, the paper argues that Beijing remains focused on stability rather than global expansion. This view contrasts with theories predicting confrontation as rising powers challenge established ones.
The concept of the Thucydides trap warns that war often erupts when an emerging power threatens a dominant one. Some analysts apply this to U.S.-China relations, pointing to tensions over trade, technology, and regional influence. Yet the study by Evan S. Medeiros, M. Taylor Fravel, and Jonathan Pollack suggests China’s ambitions are far more limited.
The findings offer a different perspective on China’s rise, suggesting its goals are more defensive than aggressive. By focusing on internal stability and selective territorial claims, Beijing appears to avoid the path of past conflict resolution efforts. The study’s conclusions may reshape debates about whether conflict resolution between the U.S. and China is inevitable.
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