Portugal's 2025 elections leave parliament fractured and uncertain future ahead
Portugal's political landscape is shifting as new polling reveals a tightly contested parliament following the 2025 legislative elections. The latest survey highlights a three-way split, with no single party securing a clear majority. Meanwhile, António José Seguro's recent presidential victory has raised questions about his approach to governing alongside Prime Minister Luís Montenegro.
The 2025 legislative elections left Portugal with a fragmented parliament. The PSD/CDS coalition, known as the Democratic Alliance (AD), took 31% of the vote, while the Socialist Party (PS) followed closely at 24%. Far-right party Chega secured 21%, a drop of four percentage points from earlier projections.
When undecided voters and abstentions are excluded, the race tightens further. Both AD and PS then reach 29%, with Chega holding at 25%. Smaller parties, such as the Liberal Initiative (IL) and the Democratic Unity Coalition (CDU), remain at 5% and 4% respectively. The coalition supporting the current government now stands at 25%. António José Seguro's election as president has introduced new dynamics. A significant 46% of Chega supporters believe he will take a more interventionist stance than his predecessor, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. Meanwhile, 42% of respondents expect Seguro to focus on cooperation with the government, and 43% foresee a strong working relationship between him and Prime Minister Luís Montenegro. Rebelo de Sousa left office in March 2026 with high approval ratings, including 16% very positive and 52% positive in his final Barómetro DN/Aximage poll. The poll also reveals voter engagement challenges. Currently, 9% of voters remain undecided, while 8% do not plan to participate in elections.
The results confirm a divided parliament, with no party holding a dominant position. Seguro's presidency introduces uncertainty over how he will interact with the government, particularly given mixed expectations from voters. The coming months will likely test the stability of Portugal's political alliances and governance.
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