Potential Drones Assault Threat to U.S. similar to Ukraine's conquests on Russian Warplanes, Report Suggests
In a jaw-dropping turn of events, Ukraine's audacious drone assault on Russia's strategic aircraft fleet has set off alarms among military strategists, raises concerns about the vulnerability of high-value US aircraft at home and abroad. This unsettling situation prompts a fresh look at potential threats.
At a recent defense conference in Washington, Gen. David Allvin, the US Air Force chief of staff, admitted that the US, with its mostly unhardened bases, is susceptible to analogous attacks.
"There's no sanctuary even in the US homeland, particularly given that our bases back home are essentially unhardened," Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told CNN.
The term "unhardened" refers to the lack of adequate shelters to protect US warplanes from airstrikes, whether by drones or missiles.
The Ukrainian operation utilized inconspicuous drones smuggled into Russian territory, hidden in mobile houses atop trucks, and deployed close to four Russian air bases. Once near the bases, the mobile houses' roofs were remotely opened, and the drones swooped in for the strike.
Russian aircraft lying unprotected on the tarmac at the bases offer a strikingly similar target profile to US warplanes stationed at facilities across the globe. Retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal told CNN, "We're pretty vulnerable."
In a January report for the Hudson Institute, Shugart and co-author Timothy Walton highlighted the threat to US military installations, particularly from China, in the event of any conflict between the superpowers. The researchers emphasized that Chinese strike forces could attack US aircraft and their supporting systems at airfields worldwide, including in the continental United States.
War game simulations and analyses demonstrated that the "overwhelming majority of US aircraft losses would likely occur on the ground at airfields," underscoring the potential devastation of such attacks.
A report from Air and Space Forces magazine last year pointed out the glaring absence of hardened shelters at Anderson Air Force Base, probable U.S.'s most strategically important air facility in the Pacific. Home to pricey bombers like the $2 billion B-2, this base lacks hardened shelters, posing a significant concern.
The cost of fortifying US military installations against drone and missile attacks presents a budget dilemma. Gen. David Allvin, questioned the CNAS conference, "Should we spend defense dollars on hardened shelters and ways to stop drones and missiles from attacking US bases, or should we focus on offensive weapons that take the fight to the enemy?"
The concern over the effectiveness of a purely defensive posture was echoed by Shugart when he said, "If all we are doing is playing defense and can't shoot back, then that's not a good use of our money."
The specter of expensive new defense projects
The Air Force's intention to build a new stealth fighter, the F-47, initially priced at $300 million per aircraft, adds to the struggle in balancing defense spending. The high cost of the F-47, combined with the estimated $30 million for a hardened shelter, highlights the constant challenge of prioritizing investments between offensive capabilities and defensive infrastructure.
Despite President Trump's ambitious $175 billion plan for the Golden Dome missile shield, designed to counter long-range threats, it leaves US bases vulnerable to short-range attacks, such as those from drones and missiles.
The geographical challenge
The vastness of Russia's territory, while initially deemed a strength in its conflict with Ukraine, now serves as a weakness due to the endless possibilities for infiltration points and the extensive monitoring required.
Similarly, US Air Force bomber bases, although located inland, are accessible and at risk from vehicles and illicit entrants. For instance, all 20 B-2 bombers are stationed at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, just 25 miles south of Interstate 70, a major east-west traffic artery in the US.
As the threat landscape evolves, the vulnerable nature of US military installations demands decisive action to maintain a strong defensive posture. Balancing costly investments in hardened infrastructure against the hefty price tags of cutting-edge offensive weapons remains a critical challenge for the US military.
- The escalating concern lies in potential threats to US military installations, especially from countries like China, as highlighted by Thomas Shugart in a January report for the Hudson Institute.
- The discovery of unprotected US warplanes at facilities across the globe, as seen in war game simulations and analyses, emphasizes their vulnerability to attacks, similar to the Russian aircraft at bases in Ukraine.
- In the face of mounting expenses for new defense projects, such as the proposed F-47 stealth fighter costing $300 million per aircraft, and the need for hardened shelters estimated at $30 million each, prioritizing investments between offensive capabilities and defensive infrastructure presents a significant budget dilemma for the US military.
