SPD's last-minute surge reshapes Brandenburg as Baden-Württemberg's parties collapse
The 2024 state elections in Brandenburg and Baden-Württemberg delivered sharp shifts in political power. In Brandenburg, the SPD staged a dramatic comeback, surging past the far-right AfD in the final weeks. Meanwhile, Baden-Württemberg saw major parties collapse as voters focused on stopping the AfD, leaving smaller groups struggling to survive.
In Brandenburg, the SPD climbed from 20 percent to over 30 percent before election day. Minister-President Dietmar Woidke's campaign played a key role, convincing voters that the party could block the AfD. Polls showed this late momentum, with many undecided voters shifting to the SPD once they saw a real chance of defeating the far right.
Polls also shaped Baden-Württemberg's election, where voters faced a choice between Cem Özdemir's Greens and Manuel Hagel's CDU. Both sides pushed supporters to turn out, fearing losses to the AfD. But the Greens fell below 5 percent, losing their parliamentary seats, while the CDU also lost ground. The FDP suffered the worst, dropping to just 0.8 percent and collapsing entirely.
Smaller parties like the SPD, FDP, and Left Party now face survival battles. Their poll numbers hover near the threshold for entering parliament, forcing voters to weigh whether backing them risks wasting their ballot. Past elections, such as the Pirate Party's 2011 breakthrough in Berlin, show how polls can suddenly shift opinions—but this time, the trend favoured bigger parties.
The SPD's victory in Brandenburg marks a clear rejection of the AfD, driven by last-minute polling shifts. In Baden-Württemberg, polarisation pushed voters toward the CDU or Greens, leaving smaller parties in crisis. The results now force all sides to reassess their strategies ahead of future elections.
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