Texas Democrats' tight Senate race nears climax as Talarico leads Crockett
Texas Democrats are choosing between James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett for their party's Senate nomination. The race has tightened in recent days, but Talarico holds a strong advantage as voters head to the election polls. If successful, the winner will aim to become the first Democrat elected to the state's Senate since 1988.
The contest has seen sharp shifts since summer 2025. Prediction markets initially showed volatility, with both candidates trading leads. Talarico's appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert then reversed Crockett's momentum, solidifying his position as the frontrunner.
Going into the final day, Talarico leads Crockett by 76% to 24% on the prediction platform Kalshi. Early voters have backed him at 58%, though day-of polling suggests a closer split: Crockett holds 50% among those casting ballots on todays date, while Talarico sits at 39%. A recent survey also gives him a narrow overall edge, with 52% support compared to Crockett's 48%.
Meanwhile, former Senate candidate Colin Allred has remained active in Texas politics. After withdrawing from the Democratic primary in December 2025, he endorsed Christian Menefee in the special election for Texas's 18th congressional district. Menefee won the runoff on 31 January 2026 and was sworn in two days later. Allred has not announced further political plans as of March 2026.
Talarico enters the closing hours with a clear lead in both polling and prediction markets. Crockett's campaign has struggled to recover ground, with her implied probability now at 24%. The outcome will determine who faces the Republican nominee in November's general election.
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