Trimming of USAID Funding under President Trump's Administration May Lead to a Shocking 14 Million Preventable Deaths by 2030

Trimming of USAID Funding under President Trump's Administration May Lead to a Shocking 14 Million Preventable Deaths by 2030

In a troubling development for global health and development, an international team of researchers has warned that proposed cuts to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) foreign aid could lead to over 14 million preventable deaths by 2030.

The Lancet report, published earlier this year, highlights the potential impacts of the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio's announcement in March 2022 of an 80% cut in USAID programs. The cuts were overseen by Elon Musk as part of the Department of Government Efficiency and the wider Trump administration's efforts to shrink government spending.

## Potential Consequences of USAID Cuts

The report outlines several significant areas that could be affected by the cuts, including increased mortality rates, healthcare and disease prevention, food security and humanitarian aid, socioeconomic impacts, and global development.

1. **Increased Mortality Rates**: The cuts could lead to approximately 14 million deaths by 2030, with children under five years old accounting for about 4.5 million of these fatalities. The most affected regions are likely to be Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where aid has been crucial for health and nutrition programs.

2. **Healthcare and Disease Prevention**: Significant reductions in funding for treatment and prevention of diseases like HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis could lead to increased mortality rates. Programs aimed at addressing nutritional deficiencies and neglected tropical diseases may also be severely impacted.

3. **Food Security and Humanitarian Aid**: Cuts could exacerbate food insecurity in conflict zones like Sudan, Yemen, and Gaza, where aid has been essential for survival. Programs supporting pregnant women and children may be halted or significantly reduced, further impacting nutrition and health outcomes.

4. **Socioeconomic Impacts**: The reduction in aid could weaken local economies, leading to increased poverty and reduced economic resilience. In some areas, the cut could collapse informal credit systems that help communities cope with economic shocks.

5. **Global Development**: The cuts risk reversing decades of progress in health and socioeconomic development in low and middle-income countries.

## USAID's Role in Global Development

USAID, the largest funding agency for humanitarian and development aid in the world, has played a crucial role in providing antiretroviral drugs for millions of people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. The agency has also offered disaster relief following disasters like the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, the typhoons in Haiyan, in the Philippines, and after the Ebola outbreak in Western Africa in 2014.

USAID has supported local agricultural efforts in countries like Ethiopia, Bangladesh, and Honduras. However, the cuts could result in an 88 percent potential cut in support to maternal and child health aid, significantly undermining global efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals for 2030.

Humanitarian organizations have raised concerns about the absence of adequate notice or planning for a phased transition of USAID's programs. The cuts could contribute to uncertainties across the world related to the current polycrisis - the confluence of problems stemming from concurrent international wars, geopolitical instability, climate change, and so on. The short-term, medium-term, and long-term consequences for public health, economic development, and societal stability could be profound without time to implement adaptive responses.

[1] The Lancet (2022). USAID cuts could lead to 14 million preventable deaths by 2030. [Online] Available at: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00102-2/fulltext [2] USAID (2021). USAID's Work in Sub-Saharan Africa. [Online] Available at: https://www.usaid.gov/what-we-do/regions/sub-saharan-africa [3] USAID (2021). USAID's Work in Global Health. [Online] Available at: https://www.usaid.gov/what-we-do/global-health [4] USAID (2021). USAID's Work in Economic Growth. [Online] Available at: https://www.usaid.gov/what-we-do/economic-growth-and-trade

1. Workplace-Wellness and Public Health: The reduction in aid could lead to a decline in workplace health programs, increasing the prevalence of medical conditions such as chronic diseases, cancers, and respiratory conditions.
2. Digestive Health: Funding cuts might negatively impact programs that address digestive health issues, such as diarrheal diseases and malnutrition, exacerbating health problems in affected populations.
3. Eye Health: Aid reductions could hamper efforts to combat vision loss and blindness caused by preventable or treatable conditions, particularly in regions where access to healthcare is limited.
4. Hearing: Programs focused on ear and hearing care may see their funding diminished, potentially leading to increased hearing impairment in target communities.
5. Health and Wellness: The cuts could disrupt ongoing efforts to promote overall health and wellness, including mental health, men's health, women's health, and sexual health programs that improve quality of life and prevent health complications.
6. Fitness and Exercise: Reduced funding for sports and physical activities programs might limit the opportunities for children and adults to maintain a healthy lifestyle, contributing to health issues related to sedentary behavior.
7. Autoimmune Disorders: Adequate resources are crucial for researching and managing autoimmune disorders in low and middle-income countries, where access to treatments and healthcare facilities is often limited.
8. Climate Change: Lower investments in renewable energy and environmental science programs may exacerbate the impacts of climate change on public health.
9. Manufacturing: The cuts could undermine local manufacturing sectors, which are essential for creating jobs and improving economic prosperity in aid-recipient countries.
10. Environmental-Science and Finance: Robust funding is essential for investigating and counteracting environmental factors that impact health, including air pollution, water contamination, and climate change.
11. Skin Care: Reduced funding might impact efforts to research and address skin conditions in developing countries, where access to appropriate treatments and healthcare is frequently limited.
12. Oil and Gas: The cuts could stall investments in responsible energy production, altering the balance between environmental preservation and energy demand in recipient countries.
13. Aerospace: The diminished focus on aerospace programs could pose challenges in delivering aid to remote and hard-to-reach areas, affecting the overall effectiveness of aid efforts.
14. Retail: Insufficient resources might threaten local retail industries, which often play a vital role in providing essential goods and services in these communities.
15. Public Transit: The reduced funding could impact infrastructure development, making it challenging for people to access essential services and opportunities in urban environments.
16. Entrepreneurship: The cuts might limit opportunities for small businesses to grow and thrive, slowing the economic advancement in the regions receiving aid.
17. Transportation: Infrastructure projects, including roads and bridges, might see delays or cancellation, impacting the mobility and connectivity of communities.
18. Leadership: Development programs for future leaders might be scaled back, potentially limiting the capacity for generating change and sustainable development in aid-recipient countries.
19. Diversity and Inclusion: Cutting funding for initiatives promoting inclusiveness could undermine efforts to create equitable and inclusive societies, reinforcing existing inequalities.
20. Automotive: The reduced focus on automotive programs could impede innovation, impacting the development of new technologies and solutions to address transportation challenges.
21. Investing: Insufficient funding might dissuade private investments in the development sector, hindering progress and growth in recipient countries.
22. Aviation: The cuts could affect aviation infrastructure development, limiting access to air travel and impacting the overall economy of developing nations.
23. Business and Careers: The decline in aid might exacerbate job losses in the business sector, affecting economic stability and career opportunities in developed and developing nations alike.
24. Housing Market: Reduced funding for housing projects could impact the construction and maintenance of affordable housing, potentially leading to increased housing inequity.
25. Banking and Insurance: The cuts might hinder financial services expansion in developing countries, limiting access to loans, financial literacy programs, and insurance services that foster economic stability and prosperity.

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