U.S.-Russia Standoff Persists Amidst Trust Deficit and Outdated Thinking
The tense standoff between the U.S. and Russia is set to persist, with both sides committed to their objectives. Trust is scarce, with Russia distrustful of the U.S. and the West, and the U.S. stuck in outdated Cold War thinking.
President Trump's approach involves putting pressure on Russia while keeping dialogue open. Russia, however, is unwilling to compromise on security issues. The most likely catalyst for diplomatic progress is a shift in the Ukrainian frontier.
If the Ukrainian frontier collapses, the U.S. could potentially frame a peace settlement favourable to Russia as a Trump administration success. Russia engages in dialogue with the U.S. to steer clear of the Biden administration's policies and to address other mutual concerns.
The inner circle influencing Trump's Ukraine stance includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard, and tech mogul Elon Musk, who heads the Department of Government Efficiency. They often express skepticism towards Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and align more with Russian views. Advisors Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff also play significant roles, though their direct impact on Ukraine policy is less clear.
The U.S.-Russia impasse continues due to a lack of mutual trust. The situation is likely to persist until the Western side acknowledges the need for resolution. The Ukrainian frontier remains the most probable turning point for successful diplomacy.
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