UK faces housing crunch as migrants may claim 40% of new homes by 2030
Nearly four in ten newly built homes in the UK could go to migrants by 2030, according to recent projections. The forecast comes as net migration between 2026 and 2030 is expected to reach almost 1.2 million people. This surge is set to increase demand for around 500,000 additional homes across the country.
Shadow Housing Secretary Sir James Cleverly warned that 'more than a third of homes will be absorbed by migration before local families even get a look in.'
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that around 1.34 million new homes will be built between 2026 and 2030. Of these, 37.1% could be allocated to new arrivals, with the figure rising to nearly 40% by the end of the decade.
Migration numbers have already been rising. In 2025 alone, 41,474 people crossed the English Channel, while an additional 23,242 arrived during Prime Minister Keir Starmer's first six months in office. This averages around 117 daily arrivals.
To manage the housing demand, the Labour government plans to relocate asylum seekers from migrant hotels into newly built council homes. Up to 200 local authorities have shown interest in the scheme, with five councils already confirming participation in a £100 million pilot programme.
Critics have raised concerns about the impact on housing availability. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp argued that high immigration would push up rents, reduce housing access for locals, and strain community resources. Meanwhile, Starmer signed a new border security agreement with China in January, aiming to reduce Channel crossings.
The government's approach marks a shift from temporary accommodation to long-term housing solutions for migrants. However, the policy has sparked debate over its effects on local families and housing markets.
The projected rise in migration will require a significant portion of new housing stock over the next five years. With 1.2 million new arrivals expected, demand for homes is set to grow sharply. The government's plan to integrate asylum seekers into council housing will now face further scrutiny as local authorities prepare for the changes.
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