Ukraine prefaced aircraft destruction of Russia during discussions.

Spectacular Strike at Russian Air Bases Sparks Peace Talks

The latest attack on Russia's strategic bomber fleet by Ukraine has caused a stir, as global leaders gather for talks in Istanbul. Russia's response to the loss of several aircraft is still uncertain. According to Ukrainian intelligence, numerous drones were smuggled into Russia and launched attacks from trucks near military bases.

The negotiations in Istanbul mark the second round since mid-May. Direct talks between the warring parties haven't taken place since 2022. Russia has been waging war against Ukraine for over three years. Here's what you need to know about the situation and what to expect:

What transpired at the Russian air bases?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy applauded the intelligence agency's surprise attack, claiming it as a "phenomenal success." Reportedly planned over a year and a half, the attack targeted bases in Ivanovo, Ryazan, Murmansk, Irkutsk, and Amur.

The small remote-controlled drones were reportedly hidden in wooden boxes on trucks, driven unsuspectingly to military areas by their drivers. Once at the bases, the truck roofs opened automatically, and the drones began their assault.

As per SBU reports, over 40 combat and reconnaissance aircraft were destroyed, accounting for about 34% of Russia's bombers capable of carrying cruise missiles. Despite these numbers yet to be independently verified, photos and videos show damaged and destroyed combat aircraft of types Tupolev Tu-95 and Tu-22. Russia has used missiles launched from these aircraft to attack Ukraine.

The Russo-Ukrainian Standoff Before the Negotiations

Both sides have formulated demands for an end to the fighting that bear little resemblance. As the warring parties escalated their mutual attacks just prior to the meeting in Istanbul, casualties and damage increased on both sides. According to Zelenskyy, Russia attacked Ukraine with nearly 500 drones and missiles on Saturday night. Ukraine might seek to demonstrate strength with its coordinated attack on numerous Russian military bases before the negotiations.

The Ukrainian president is advocating for an internationally supervised, unconditional 30-day ceasefire as the basis for peace talks, following a US proposal. He envisions a high-level gathering to determine lasting peace and address critical issues.

Moscow rejected an unconditional ceasefire, contending that Kyiv could exploit the pause in fighting to regroup. Russia has set two conditions as a minimum requirement for a ceasefire.

"At least during the ceasefire duration, it is essential that Western countries stop supplying weapons to the Kyiv regime and that Ukraine ends its mobilization," Russia's UN envoy Vasily Nebenzya said in the UN Security Council on Friday. Russia is prepared to discuss the conditions for peace in the Istanbul talks.

Both sides are scheduled to discuss their respective proposals for ending the conflict. Ukraine plans to examine Russia's proposal in Istanbul, having already submitted its document to Russia beforehand. According to Zelensky, Russia has not yet presented a proposal. "We don't have it, the Turkish side doesn't have it, and the American side doesn't have the Russian proposal either," he wrote on the eve of the talks on the X platform.

While awaiting negotiations, Kyiv is calling for further sanctions against Moscow, whereas Russia is urging the continuation of discussions. In his Sunday evening video address, Zelensky said they would aim for "at least some progress towards peace".

The only substantial outcome of the May negotiations was the largest prisoner exchange to date. The new round could bring an accord on another prisoner exchange.

Talks about a new ceasefire, like the one during Easter, are feasible. There has also been a willingness to refrain from attacks on energy facilities. Although both sides have accused each other of numerous violations during ceasefires, they have acknowledged a decrease in the number of attacks, with Ukraine highlighting the absence of air alerts on certain days.

Russia's Demands for Fundamental Resolution

Russia has maintained its maximalist demands to permanently end the conflict. These include Ukraine's renunciation of NATO membership and significant disarmament, as well as the recognition of Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories. Russia claims Crimea, as well as the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, as part of its territory, though it does not fully control these regions. Russia demands the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops.

In addition, Russia insists it has no interest in land because it is already vast. However, the conflict is primarily about protecting the Russian-speaking minority in Ukraine, which could lead to an expansion of territorial claims. The chairman of the Russian parliament's defense committee, Andrei Kartapolov, explicitly stated that Ukraine could lose its territories of Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Mykolaiv if it rejects Moscow's peace offer now.

Zelensky rejects the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops and has repeatedly ruled out territorial concessions to Russia. The Ukrainian constitution does not permit this, he said.

Enrichment Data:

Russia’s specific demands for a fundamental resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, as articulated in recent memoranda and public statements, are extensive and align with longstanding Kremlin policy priorities and newly framed conditions. Key demands include recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied territories, military neutrality and alliances, restrictions on Ukrainian military, official status for Russian language, sanctions and economic ties, legal and political measures, elections and political governance, an international legal framework, and mutual renunciation of claims. Both Ukraine and Western allies view Russia’s demands as largely non-starters, particularly regarding territorial concessions, military neutrality, and restrictions on political and social freedoms. Analysts suggest that only the United States, with control over NATO posture and economic sanctions, has the leverage to potentially shape Russian willingness to moderate these demands.

Financing for the production of drones used in the Ukrainian attack on Russian air bases might be of interest to the financial industry as it reflects the growing sophistication of military equipment in war-and-conflicts.
The aerospace industry could be affected by the destruction of over 40 combat and reconnaissance aircraft in Russia, as reported by Ukrainian intelligence, as it signals a need for their replacements.
The latest developments in the Russo-Ukrainian War, particularly the encouraging progress towards a potential ceasefire and prisoner exchange, are generating general news and are prominent topics in politics, with each side presenting their demands for resolution.