UniCredit's €35B Commerzbank Bid Shakes Germany's Financial Sector
UniCredit has launched a €35 billion bid to take over Commerzbank, sending shockwaves through Germany's financial sector. The move dominated market activity on Monday, pushing Commerzbank's shares up by nearly 10%. Meanwhile, the German government has so far only voiced opposition, without taking concrete steps to block the deal.
The Italian bank's offer values Commerzbank at €30.80 per share, proposing a swap of 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share. Analysts suggest the bid may be a strategic push by UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel to force Commerzbank's leadership, led by CEO Bettina Orlopp, into negotiations.
The German government, holding a 12% stake in Commerzbank, has repeatedly stressed its preference for a 'strong and independent' bank. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) reaffirmed this stance, but no regulatory or political action has followed. Both the Verdi union and Commerzbank's works council have also condemned the takeover attempt.
Regulators, including the ECB and Germany's Bundeskartellamt, previously approved UniCredit's earlier stake increase to nearly 30% in March 2025. Yet, despite widespread opposition, the bid has already lifted Commerzbank's stock, giving the broader market a temporary boost. Elsewhere, Bayer and Siemens Energy made gains on positive news, while falling oil prices weighed on cyclical stocks like Lufthansa, TUI, and Beiersdorf.
The DAX remains under pressure, trading around 4.5% below its 50-day moving average. Traders now see 22,900 points as a key support level, with the index's next move hinging on how politicians and Commerzbank's board respond to UniCredit's offer.
The takeover bid has reshaped market expectations, with Commerzbank's share price surge offsetting broader losses in travel and cyclical stocks. While the German government maintains its verbal opposition, the lack of immediate intervention leaves the deal's outcome uncertain. The DAX's short-term trend will likely depend on further corporate and political reactions in the coming days.
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