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Experts Warn of Looming Energy Crisis as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Rise

A perfect storm of geopolitical tensions and AI-driven demand could trigger historic oil shocks. Here's how investors are bracing for the fallout—and where opportunities lie.

The image shows a graph depicting the lower expectations for future oil imports. The graph is...
The image shows a graph depicting the lower expectations for future oil imports. The graph is accompanied by text that provides further details about the data.

Experts Warn of Looming Energy Crisis as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Rise

Experts at Morningstar’s annual Investment Summit in London have warned of a looming global energy crisis. Concerns centre on potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which could trigger record oil price spikes. Speakers also highlighted how shifting geopolitical dynamics and AI growth are reshaping investment strategies.

Pippa Malmgren, a former US presidential adviser and entrepreneur, argued that America’s position as a major oil producer and net exporter shields it from the worst effects of an energy shock. Johanna Kyrklund, Schroders’ chief investment officer, agreed, noting that US resilience to rising oil prices makes it a preferred choice in multi-asset portfolios.

Anna Rosenberg, Amundi’s head of geopolitics, struck a more cautious tone. She described a 'schizophrenic policy environment,' where geopolitical instability and rapid AI expansion create conflicting pressures. Rosenberg also warned that US dominance has stretched its financial and military resources too thin. Meanwhile, Wei Li of BlackRock remains bullish on US equities. She cited the country’s leadership in computing and data centres as a key competitive edge. Kyrklund added that China’s control over rare earths—essential for AI and green energy—positions it as a critical counterbalance to US influence. Will Riley, manager of the Guinness Global Energy Fund, predicted that energy security will dominate future policies. He warned that supply disruptions could push oil prices even higher. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has previously stated that a Strait of Hormuz closure might provoke the worst energy crisis in history.

The US appears better insulated than other economies against energy shocks, thanks to its production capacity and export strength. However, experts stress that geopolitical tensions, AI-driven growth, and resource competition will continue to shape global markets. Investors are now weighing these risks against opportunities in technology and energy transition.

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