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Fertiliser shortages threaten global food security and push prices higher

From British farms to African villages, the fertiliser crisis is reshaping food production. Will 2025 bring even higher grocery bills?

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1 min read
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Fertiliser shortages threaten global food security and push prices higher

Rising grocery prices are causing anxiety for 80 per cent of Britons as retailers pass on higher costs. Fertiliser shortages, driven by global supply disruptions, are now posing a major threat to food security and could push prices even higher next year. The conflict in Iran has disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off key supplies of fertiliser and liquefied natural gas. Since late February, fertiliser prices have surged by 50 to 70 per cent. Yara International, the world’s largest fertiliser producer, has warned that the crisis may leave some of Africa’s poorest communities facing severe food shortages.

The boss of Grosvenor Group, owned by the Duke of Westminster, has cautioned that these shortages will have a dramatic effect on global food prices in 2025. UK arable farmers are already responding by switching from winter to spring crops, a move likely to reduce yields and increase supermarket costs. Meanwhile, the group’s Eaton estate in Cheshire remains better protected, thanks to its use of cow dung for fertiliser.

Small and medium-sized businesses in food manufacturing, hospitality, and agriculture are being urged to secure supplier contracts, hedge against price swings, and review their pricing strategies for 2027. The impact of fertiliser shortages on food prices may rival or even exceed the energy crisis that has dominated recent headlines. With costs rising and supplies uncertain, the pressure on households and businesses is set to grow in the coming year.

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