Munich protest against Iran's regime sparks debate over crowd estimates
MUNICH—Far fewer people appear to have attended the massive protest against Iran's mullah regime in Munich than initially estimated. Munich police had reported 250,000 demonstrators, a figure cited by numerous global media outlets, including Junge Freiheit, in their coverage.
Now, the Süddeutsche Zeitung reports that the Saturday protest on Theresienwiese actually drew a maximum of 150,000 participants. The paper bases its assessment on photos and videos of the event, which, when overlaid on a satellite image, suggest the demonstration covered an area of 55,000 to 65,000 square meters.
By counting attendees in smaller sections of the images and dividing by the area captured, the paper calculates an average density of 2.3 people per square meter. Extending this ratio across the entire event yields a total estimate of roughly 125,000 to 150,000 attendees.
Statistician Also Questions the Figure
Stephan Poppe, a statistics professor at the University of Leipzig, likewise doubts that 250,000 people took part. A mathematician who has long studied crowd-size estimation at large gatherings, Poppe reviewed the video footage and concluded that reaching 250,000 would have required four to five people per square meter—a scenario he deems "impossible," especially in winter, when attendees wear bulky clothing and carry umbrellas.
Demonstrations typically average about 1.5 people per square meter, he noted. Even the Süddeutsche's calculation, he argued, represents a "robust but rather generous estimate."
Police Stand by Original Estimate
Munich police, however, continue to defend their weekend figure as realistic. According to the report, a spokesperson emphasized that the estimate was based on "operational police experience" but declined to elaborate on the specific methodology used.
The protest was organized by The Munich Circle, an Iranian exile group. Its chairman, Farhid Habibi, dismissed the debate over attendance numbers: "We're not losing any sleep over it." He had registered the event for 100,000 participants—a threshold he said was "clearly exceeded."
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