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Ex-contractor accused of exploiting classified intel for political betting profits

From a Venezuela raid to suspicious wagers, one man's gains expose the dark side of prediction markets. Could this case rewrite the rules for political betting?

The image shows a poster with a person wearing a helmet and holding a gun, with the words "Invest...
The image shows a poster with a person wearing a helmet and holding a gun, with the words "Invest in Invasion, Buy War Bonds" written across the top. The person in the poster is wearing a military uniform and has a determined expression on their face, suggesting they are ready to take on any challenge that comes their way.

Ex-contractor accused of exploiting classified intel for political betting profits

During the roughly hour-long hearing, Van Dyke spoke little.

Federal prosecutors accused Van Dyke of leveraging his access to classified information about the January operation to detain Maduro to profit on the betting platform Polymarket.

Massive gains from well-timed wagers drew public attention just days after the Venezuela raid.

The sudden surge in this market has prompted increasing scrutiny from Congress and state governments.

Some lawmakers noted highly specific bets—precisely timed around Israel and the U.S. campaign against Iran, as well as Donald Trump's decisions—sparking efforts to prevent and penalize insider trading.

The Trump administration supports the expansion of the betting market.

Trump's eldest son serves as an advisor to Polymarket and its rival Kalshi, while also holding shares in the former.

Trump's own social media platform, Truth Social, is launching its own betting site, Truth Predict.

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