Brazil Says Event Contracts Fall Outside Legal Betting Rules
Brazil bans prediction markets under strict gambling regulations
Brazil has confirmed that prediction markets are illegal, shutting the door on operators such as Polymarket in the largest market in Latin America. The announcement came after the National Monetary Council approved a resolution limiting which products can qualify as derivatives.
Key Points:
- Brazil said prediction markets cannot operate under derivatives rules.
- Anatel has already blocked 28 platforms offering event contracts.
- The government says Law 14.790 only covers fixed odds betting and online games.
Brazilian Finance Minister Dario Durigan and Miriam Belchior, Chief of Staff of the Presidency, announced the decision Friday. The National Monetary Council resolution says sports events, virtual gaming events, political outcomes, elections, social events, cultural events, entertainment events, and similar outcomes cannot serve as underlying assets for derivatives contracts.
That decision blocks prediction market operators from using financial market language to offer event contracts in Brazil. Instead, officials say those products look like betting, but fall outside the legal framework created for fixed odds betting and online gaming.
Belchior said:
"Now, we are announcing that prediction markets will not be allowed in Brazil. We do not want to expose Brazilians to risks and financial losses."
The government has already started enforcement. Anatel, the national telecommunications agency, has blocked 28 prediction market platforms and plans to block new operators that try to enter the country.
Durigan said the same approach already used against illegal betting sites will apply here. Since the regulated online gambling market launched in January 2025, Brazil has blocked 39,000 unlicensed betting sites. He said the goal is to stop any illegal betting offer, including products based on weather, politics, or other real-world events.
Durigan said:
"The product offered by these platforms is not eligible for regulation. The blocking action is due to non-compliance with the legislation. This market is not provided for in the legislation, and it will not be permitted for anyone to bet on whether it will rain tomorrow or not."
Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, said Brazil built its betting rules to organize a specific activity, not every type of event wager. He said betting outside sports and online games remains prohibited.
Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting, said authorized fixed odds betting platforms must follow the public service rules already in place. She added that prediction markets entered Brazil as bets disguised as derivatives, and the government has not recognized that model.
The decision adds another layer to Brazil betting regulation after the 2025 launch of the legal online market. It also gives regulators a clearer basis to act against event contract platforms before they build scale among Brazilian users.
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