Ifo Institute Study: Germany's Population to Shrink More Sharply Than Expected
ifo Institute: Population shrinks more than expected - Germany's population to plummet 10% by 2070, new study warns
Germany's population will decline far more sharply in the coming years than previously estimated, according to a new analysis of the latest Federal Statistical Office data by the Dresden-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research. The study projects that by 2070, Germany will have roughly 10% fewer residents than today—far exceeding earlier forecasts of a 1% drop. Researchers also highlight stark regional disparities: eastern German states are expected to experience the steepest declines, while city-states may even see population growth by 2070.
The revised outlook follows updated figures from the 2022 census, which found Germany's population at approximately 81.9 million—lower than prior estimates. This lower baseline, researchers say, will lead to a "significantly shrinking population" over the long term.
"The accelerated decline and aging of the population must be factored into long-term policy decisions today, particularly in areas like healthcare and elder care," said Ifo Institute director Joachim Ragnitz. With fewer people, demand for housing, transportation infrastructure, and public-sector staff will fall, while the need for healthcare and elderly support services will rise.
- Germany
- Ifo Institute for Economic Research
- Dresden
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