Trump's final years in office could be his boldest—and riskiest—yet
A post-midterms, lame-duck Trump could be the most dangerous yet
Trump is obsessed with sealing his legacy by any means. The next two and a half years will probably be Trump's most violent yet, writes Michael Martins
Losing the midterms won't sedate Trump
We are living through two distinct but intertwined phases: President Trump's post-presidency legacy construction and the build-up to the US midterms in November. Recently announcing plans to build a quasi-Arc de Triomphe, whilst settling old scores with America's adversaries - whether that be drug lords in Mexico, presidents in Venezuela or nearly the entire Iranian regime's leadership - it is clear that President Trump has midterms and legacy front of mind.
Start with the midterms. Historically, the incumbent party of the White House tends to lose control of one or both Houses of Congress during midterms, which many of those opposed to President Trump's foreign policy agenda look to with an almost palpable sense of anticipation and pre-emptive relief.
I think this is a mistake. Most second-term presidents, if they lose midterms, end up sealing their legacy via foreign policy wins. For a President obsessed with legacy building by any means, whether by closing America's borders or cutting Iranian energy shipments to China via naval blockade, this means that the next two and a half years will probably be more violent and dangerous than the past 12 months.
President Trump is unlikely to retire quietly or down tools during the lame-duck period of his presidency. I would be unsurprised if he continued to use the US military to extract concessions from allies and adversaries alike right up until the last minute of his term.
So, although the quagmire in Iran has slowed Trump down, I wouldn't rest easy if I were the political leadership in Havana or Kyiv (or Beijing or London for that matter), because his ultimate aim now is the same as when he first became President: to 'solve the problems' his predecessors couldn't. He wants to be the President that 'stopped Iran from getting nukes' and 'negotiated the ceasefire in Ukraine', not one that 'delayed uranium enrichment' or 'sent military equipment to the Donbas'.
He's a showman at heart, so be prepared for another bumpy few years as he tries to sell history on his own importance.
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