Greens struggle in Baden-Württemberg's tight state election

Cem Özdemir, the Green Party's lead candidate, is unlikely to succeed Winfried Kretschmann as state premier of Baden-Württemberg.

Southern Germans are no strangers to frustration: anyone living south of Frankfurt am Main must resign themselves to being mistaken for a Bavarian. Amateur ethnologists from Potsdam or Flensburg might also identify a Swabian—and assume that people from Freiburg, Landau, and, in the worst-case scenario, even Saarbrücken belong to the same group. The South is further stereotyped as having better weather (true), a strange dialect (also true, though younger generations are losing it), and an all-around conservative outlook on life—which, the thinking goes, makes it harder for a man named Özdemir to become state premier.

This is where the cliché must be dismantled. And not just because many who hold this view tellingly mispronounce his first name as "Tschem" instead of the correct "Dshem."

"Poverty is self-inflicted, wealth is self-earned, and preventive work is worth less than policing—this mindset keeps cropping up."

—Hanna Binder, SPD Stuttgart

The truth is, yes, Baden-Württemberg—where the state parliament will be newly elected on March 8—has its share of racists. But is it really more likely here than elsewhere that voters would base their decision on a Turkish-sounding surname? Unlikely. Four of Germany's eight major cities with the highest migrant populations are in Baden-Württemberg (Pforzheim, Heilbronn, Mannheim, and Stuttgart). And even in the 1990s, elementary school classes in small towns here often had one in three children with non-German-sounding names.

Moreover, the Greens' poll numbers were the same before Özdemir's candidacy was announced as they were afterward—recently, they even saw a significant uptick. Above all, his personal approval ratings are far higher than those of his party, which is almost shyly concealed on campaign posters tailored entirely around him.

That said, Baden-Württemberg is a comparatively conservative state—and the evidence is clear. The AfD's projected 20 percent support is among the highest in western Germany, drawing votes from many openly bourgeois figures. A few years ago, in Karlsruhe, the state's second-largest city, the entire AfD leadership consisted of former CDU and FDP members. Their reason for switching parties? Opposition to the nuclear phaseout. What's more, the Greens are nowhere more conservative than here: Kretschmann, who has served as state premier since 2011, likely has more in common with a CDU member from Lower Saxony or Bavaria than with a Green Party colleague from Berlin.

And if you add up the votes for the Left Party and the SPD, no state (except Bavaria) has seen such consistently low combined support for decades (currently around 16 percent). This is partly due to the SPD's dire condition nationwide. But it also reflects the fact that "social issues" struggle to gain traction in the Ländle—and sometimes for historical reasons. Beyond a (often overlooked) liberal tradition, particularly in the Baden region—where the 1818 state constitution was the most progressive of its time—there are deep-seated countercurrents. Max Weber himself saw a strong link between Protestant ethics, especially Calvinist influences, and the rise of capitalism in the Western world. The Protestant Reformation movements that took hold here left lasting marks in parts of Swabia.

"We're very conservative when it comes to social issues," says Hanna Binder, an SPD politician from Stuttgart running for the state parliament. "The idea that poverty is self-inflicted, wealth is self-earned, and preventive work is less valuable than policing—this mindset keeps coming up."

This, too, is no coincidence: Industrial workers in the metal, automotive, and electrical sectors were paid handsomely. Anyone who worked "at Daimler" as a lathe operator or welder earned so well that the idea of redistribution made them fear they would lose out rather than gain. Unsurprisingly, Binder's SPD—currently polling between eight and ten percent—faces an uphill battle. The Left Party, which is likely to enter the state parliament this time, previously achieved its best-ever state election result in 2021: 3.6 percent.

The Greens, founded in Karlsruhe in 1980, are a different story. Here, they are so conservative that other state branches claim they might as well be a different party altogether. "On social policy," Binder says, the state party leadership is "the most approachable" faction of the Greens. The parliamentary group's leadership is not, and Kretschmann least of all. Cem Özdemir, who is despised by Turkish nationalists for his sharp criticism of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan or the Grey Wolves, rarely makes his mark on social policy either. Yet the conservative "Anatolian Swabian," as he's sometimes called, is at least a trained social pedagogue.

Would that help close the gap in childcare for preschoolers? According to a study by the German Economic Institute, Baden-Württemberg—affectionately known as "Bawü"—still lacks over 41,000 daycare spots for children under three. Until a few years ago, finding full-day daycare in rural areas was nearly impossible. While SPD-governed Rhineland-Palatinate has offered free daycare since 2010, in its wealthier neighbor, parents still have to pay. Binder believes this stems from the persistent conservative view of women's roles. It might also explain why men in Baden-Württemberg receive above-average gross pensions of €1,755 (national average: €1,692), while women's pensions rank among the lowest in the country.