Politics Expert Issues Prognosis on AfD's Result - Far-right AfD makes historic push in Bavaria's local elections
Far-Right AfD Already Holds Mayoral Offices in Eastern Germany—Could It Win Town Halls or District Councils in Bavaria? An Expert Weighs In
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is unlikely to win any mayoral or district administrator races in Bavaria's local elections on March 8, according to political scientist Ursula Münch. However, she expects the party's candidates to advance to runoff votes in several contests.
"It's quite possible that AfD candidates will make it into runoff elections," said Münch, director of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing. "But we have to keep in mind: while the AfD currently polls at around 20 percent in Bavaria, 80 percent do not support them. And for a large portion of that 80 percent, any party other than an extremist one will do. In my view, that will prevent the AfD from winning in runoffs."
"Voters Aren't Even Looking at the Candidate"
Though local elections are often personality-driven, Münch noted that disillusioned voters who buy into the AfD's narrative—that all other parties are part of a corrupt "old mainstream"—will back the party's candidates regardless of who they are. "We've seen this in other elections," she said. "It's about expressing rejection of the political establishment and breaking with those in power." Yet even that protest vote, she argued, won't be enough to secure victories in runoff contests.
If no candidate for mayor, lord mayor, or district administrator wins an absolute majority on March 8, the top two finishers will face off in a runoff two weeks later.
The AfD is not fielding candidates in every Bavarian municipality, but it is running for the top office in the state's two largest cities—Munich and Nuremberg—as well as in numerous district administrator races.
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