Canada cuts U.S. ties, boosts trade with China and India

Canada's bold break from U.S. reliance reshapes trade and defence by 2030

Canada Poised to Fill Transatlantic Void as U.S. Retreats Into Isolationism

A constitutional majority unexpectedly secured by Canada's Liberal Party in the April 13 by-elections has given Prime Minister Mark Carney unprecedented freedom to act—and a chance to outlast Donald Trump in office. Just hours after liberating his government from the need to negotiate with opposition parties, Carney declared that Ottawa is ready to lead a "resistance" to American dominance, both within NATO and in relations with the European Union.

The unprecedented political mandate—granting the Liberals a free hand in decision-making—has emboldened Carney not only in policy but in rhetoric. On April 14, as the election results became clear, he asserted that "given the global climate, now is not the time for political debates—we must work together to build a Canada that no one can take from us."

While Carney's speech stopped short of naming the source of the threat to the Maple Leaf nation's sovereignty, the implication was unmistakable. Trump has repeatedly suggested that Canada's future lies as America's 51st state—a prospect Ottawa takes with the utmost seriousness. In February 2026, under Carney's leadership, Canada unveiled a new defense-industrial doctrine, the first since 1949 to no longer treat the U.S.—which currently accounts for 75% of Canada's military-technical cooperation—as an unconditional ally. Among the measures: replacing American F-35 fighters with Sweden's Saab Gripen jets.

To fund its "regional defense autonomy" program, Ottawa has allocated over $4 billion, with direct military spending set to rise by 13%. The initiative will be presented to allies at the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7–8.

On the economic front, Canada is racing to diversify its trade, shifting focus to China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Southeast Asian nations. The goal is to halve its export-import reliance on the U.S. and double trade with these partners to $300 billion by 2030. Ottawa also plans to build its own sovereign cloud infrastructure, breaking away from U.S. tech giants Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.

Public opinion polls suggest that most Canadians support the idea of uniting their country with the European Union in some form to preserve transatlantic unity, which they see as being undermined by the Trump administration. Surveys conducted in March and April found that nearly 60% of the 4,000 respondents favored such a move. Meanwhile, 76% of those polled agreed that NATO members should stop relying on the U.S. as their default ally.

Still, discussions about Euro-Canadian integration are more therapeutic than practical—a way to shore up the fading sense of transatlantic unity, argues Pavel Koshkin, a senior research fellow at the Institute of the U.S. and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences. "Canada simply lacks the economic or military capacity to take the lead in NATO or other European institutions from which the U.S. has clearly withdrawn," the expert explained. "Even within the G7, Canada ranks last in overall development. Essentially, both sides of the Atlantic are just waiting out Trump's presidency in hopes of a return to 'normalcy.'"

However, by pushing such initiatives, both Mark Carney and European politicians risk backfiring—provoking Trump, who could further escalate measures against Canada and EU nations. With at least three more years in office, he has ample time to drive the divorce between Washington and its erstwhile allies to its logical conclusion.