Germany's coalition struggles as AfD surges in new polls
This must be the spring of reforms. The German government has agreed on key points for the budget and healthcare reform—both essentially long lists of cuts. At least health insurance contributions won't rise for now, and the short-term budget gaps have been plugged. No bold vision, despite Chancellor Scholz's promises a year ago. But let's be honest—who really believed in that, apart from Friedrich Merz and Carsten "Just Get It Done" Linnemann?
The center-left coalition and the chancellor have been in office for nearly a year. They haven't lacked industriousness: by their own count, they've passed 175 laws and measures in the past twelve months—twice as many as the previous "traffic light" coalition. Yet Schwarz-Rot is now even less popular than the Ampel. If elections were held this Sunday, the CDU/CSU and SPD would be voted out, and the far-right AfD would become the strongest party. Much of this stems from policy missteps and poor communication.
In opposition, Merz and the CDU relished portraying Ampel politicians as losers and themselves as masters of the game. They suggested that once Merz took the chancellorship, he'd hit the free-market reset button, and the economy would roar back to life. It hasn't worked out that way.
For one, the SPD—a coalition partner that doesn't share the CDU's faith in the market's inherent social fairness or its belief that the state should merely act as referee—has stood in the way. For another, the world now has too many players who no longer play by the rules, led by U.S. President Trump, Putin in Russia, and Xi in China. As one prominent Christian Democrat once put it: "Governing is a rendezvous with reality." The remark was aimed at the Greens, but Wolfgang Schäuble could just as easily have been pointing at Merz.
Instead of grand gestures, Merz has settled for small steps, inching forward. This doesn't go down well—especially with those he once courted. The spokesman for the CDU/CSU's economic wing now openly talks of breaking up the coalition. That could also be read as a call to exploit right-of-center majorities. All the more reason to remind the government that left-of-center majorities exist too: for a solidarity-based healthcare system, secure pensions, and fair taxation of high incomes and wealth. May Day is the perfect occasion to make that case.
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